It's that old supply-and-demand issue.
When everyone wants something-say, Hanna Montana tickets-its price can go right through the roof. And though Ms. Montana's glittering performance may not exactly thrill you, the fact that it thrills about 10 billion young girls has, in many cases, actually sent the price of her otherwise $60 tickets to upwards of $2,000.
That may soon be gold's story.
Like Hannah Montana, gold certainly isn't everyone's favorite. For a good number of traditional stock-and-bond investors, the precious metal may as well be radioactive. "Gold? It's a barbarian's relic. Why on earth would I want anything to do with that?" is what you might overhear one of these stuffy investors mutter.
But with the dollar unable to raise itself from record lows, it's not out of the question to, one morning, find our economic world turned upside down...and, with it, those investors who've looked down their noses at gold all their lives.
If that happened, it could motivate these people to become official card-carrying gold bugs virtually overnight...not that there'd be an abundance of gold to buy at that point.
WILL THE LAST ONE HOLDING DOLLARS PLEASE SHUT OFF THE LIGHTS?
It's already an exhausted cliché to say that the dollar is in freefall-that's how much of a given this dollar dropping phenomenon has become (underlined by the fact that even McDonald's has run ads making a joke of the dollar's woes).
Even so, most people remain under the impression that the current plunge merely falls within the acceptable range of the dollar's broad scale of flexibility and that, once it's gotten this bout of weakness out of its system, the greenback will simply revert to its normally indestructible self.
Ho hum. End of story.
But, this time, the story may be different.
The dollar could literally descend so low against the euro (it's now at a record $1.58), could fall so far on the Dollar Index (it's at an unheard of 72), that nations could ultimately feel backed into a corner. And, once there, they could make some irrevocable, once-in-our-lifetime decisions.
For example, Saudi, assorted Middle East nations and China have nearly $3 trillion in cash reserves. With no dollar bottom in the foreseeable future, China has threatened to use the nuclear option-dumping dollars in favor of the euro and a basket of other currencies.
As it is, the idea of "dollar-divesting" appears dangerously contagious. If enough nations adopt the idea-and many are now mulling it over-it could, as unbelievable as it sounds, demote America's currency to almost third-world status.
If and when that happens, where would investors fly in a flight from the dollar?
Well, they'd fly to gold of course. But that's just where the story gets interesting.
MODELING THE PRICE OF GOLD IN A FLIGHT FROM THE DOLLAR
The trouble here is that gold has a notoriously inelastic supply. You'll never hear, "Sure, go ahead, buy that 1,000 ounces of gold. We'll dig more up tomorrow."
Uh uh. While people are mining the precious metal all the time, worldwide production has stagnated these last five years and is now running at a relative snail's pace. A flight from the dollar to gold would quickly eat up its current inventory, and, like those Hannah Montana tickets, send the price of the metal to the moon.
Analyst Doug Dillon, in his article, "There's Just Not Enough Gold; Modeling A Dollar Flight To Gold" gave us a picture of what this might look like. If there were just a 1% shift of the assets of US households (now in stocks, bonds and funds) into gold, maybe representing an "I'm worried about the dollar" attitude (but still falling far short of a panic), Dillon's model points to inelastic gold hitting $4,769 an ounce.
On the other hand, if there were a flight from the dollar that amounted to, as Dillon put it, a "minor panic," his model literally has gold ascending the $10,000 an ounce throne.
As astonishing as all this sounds, without enough gold around to satisfy panicky investors, these kinds of unreal prices are not out of the question.
LINED UP AT MIDNIGHT FOR GOLD
Although it never fell under Dillon's "minor panic" category, the last time we had anything resembling a run on gold was back in 1980. Oil prices were way up, Inflation was out of control, the Russians were invading Afghanistan and smiling Jimmy Carter had no answer for any of it.
As a result, gold and silver both reached record territory. At one tiny Woonsocket, Rhode Island coin shop, people were lined up around the block at midnight, no less, looking to either sell their gold and silver stuff-like silver tea sets-at those record prices or else buy precious metals as an antidote for the inflation that swirled all around them.
At the height of it, the precious metal market began having problems getting people in and out. Dealers actually ran out of gold coins, bars and bags of "junk silver" to sell. Values moved so fast it was hard to put price tags on precious metal products. Gold liquidity, which is usually excellent, became sporadic in the face of such urgent buying and selling. It was all an example of what happens when a whole lot of people suddenly want something of increasingly limited availability.
Was that midnight line around the block a preview of coming events? Will we see a full-blown flight from the dollar in our lifetime? Will Doug Dillon's $4,000 or $10,000 gold come to pass?
Think about all that the next time your daughter or granddaughter asks you to cough up $2,000 so she can go see Hannah.
YOU'VE SEEN HIM on Fox News Television and heard him on the Rush Limbaugh Show. He's a published author, writer and an expert guest on more than 1000 radio programs discussing today's economy and gold.
Kevin DeMeritt, President of Lear Capital, is a nationally renowned analyst whose insight into the future of domestic and global economies is unmatched.
His book, The Bulls The Bears and the Bust, reviewed by the Associated Press, predicted the market crash of 2001 and the ensuing rise of gold to the status of best investment.
At the helm of Lear Capital, Kevin DeMeritt has made Lear one of the most highly endorsed gold companies in the country. Relying on his insightful recommendations, uncanny market and trading skills and 20 years of experience in investment quality gold, Kevin has navigated thousands of portfolios to profitability through boom and bust times.
And, now more than ever, his insights are welcome by nervous investors. Visit LearCapital.com for all the help you need.
Coin collecting is a fun hobby that anyone who has the time can do. A coin's history and its development can be learned by actively collecting them. At one point in time, between 1838 and 1933, the United States issued gold coins for circulation.
Saturday, January 28, 2012
The Dollar Has Lost Its Golden Luster!
When the gold standard was set in place, the price of gold remained a constant $20.65 per ounce and only fluctuated by $0.01 from the year 1833 to1890. So for fifty seven years as the US Dollar was attached to this gold standard, it remained un-fluctuating along with the gold standard. That is how it was designed to be from the founding of the country.
The constitution states that the currency of the country is to remain that way to maintain the Dollar and protect against what is exactly happening to the currency today.
From the years between 1891 and 1930, the price of gold per ounce remained relatively stable. The lowest it went was $20.58 and the greatest it reached was per ounce $21.32 and so, for a total of ninety seven years between 1833 and 1930, the price of gold only moved $.74 cents from high to low.
The price of gold hit an all time low during the depression year of 1931 since then the US slowly removed the Dollar from the gold standard until August 15th 1971; President Nixon announced that the US government would no longer redeem US currency for gold. This was the last step in departing from the gold standard. The demise of the Dollar can be seen since it was removed for the gold standard.
Keep in mind that the Dollar has historical value and therefore is extremely consistent, even though it looks as though the gold price is rising; it is really the Dollar that is falling. It has been as high as $1,030 per ounce, down to $830 per ounce.
So interestingly, if you wanted to buy a new car that cost $55,000 in 2008 and in gold, that would cost you roughly 60 ounces of gold at the spot price of $930 per ounce. So, if the Dollar was never removed from the gold standard and all the inflation that has occurred because of the removal from the gold standard, that same car today would only cost you $1,200. Remove the $1,200 from $55,000 and you get $53,800 which is how much inflation this $1,200 item has risen by over the last one hundred years.
The original Dollar value is roughly $.02 cents in today's money. It's astounding to realise how much the Dollar has dropped in value. I will try to explain further. In 1964, $.25 would just about get you a gallon of gas at the pumps because in 1964 a quarter was made from 10% copper but 90% silver. Silver costing $17.20 per ounce makes the quarters value $3.11 and that quarter of 1964 can still give you a gallon of gas today. This shows that the value of gold and silver has hardly changed and that it's the currencies that are not tied to gold and silver that are fluctuating drastically.
This was the founding Fathers warning to us and exactly the reason why they tied the Dollar to gold and silver at the founding of the constitution. The over creating by the Federal Reserve of Dollars at their own behest is in reality another tax upon the American Citizens, it strips the dollar of what little value it has left in your pocket and in the long run continues to do so. While the prices of services and good rise and rise, you on the other hand are still being paid roughly the same, its the Dollars value or any other currencies for that matter, thats detachment from the gold standard is why their value is dropping. My hope is that the issue has been made clearer to you and in order to see a change, we as individuals have the right to invest our money where we know it'll be secure, such as precious metals and also to take a stand against the government's plans to bankrupt it's citizens as it keeps the Dollar detached from the gold standard.
I realise that there is some bold claims in this article that open your eyes to the wider money picture. For more reading, check out my blog http://howtobuy-gold.blogspot.com/ or go to my web site where you see different methods and where you can buy gold online and start investing today for your future at http://www.wheretobuy-gold.com Thank you for taking the time to read this article.
The constitution states that the currency of the country is to remain that way to maintain the Dollar and protect against what is exactly happening to the currency today.
From the years between 1891 and 1930, the price of gold per ounce remained relatively stable. The lowest it went was $20.58 and the greatest it reached was per ounce $21.32 and so, for a total of ninety seven years between 1833 and 1930, the price of gold only moved $.74 cents from high to low.
The price of gold hit an all time low during the depression year of 1931 since then the US slowly removed the Dollar from the gold standard until August 15th 1971; President Nixon announced that the US government would no longer redeem US currency for gold. This was the last step in departing from the gold standard. The demise of the Dollar can be seen since it was removed for the gold standard.
Keep in mind that the Dollar has historical value and therefore is extremely consistent, even though it looks as though the gold price is rising; it is really the Dollar that is falling. It has been as high as $1,030 per ounce, down to $830 per ounce.
So interestingly, if you wanted to buy a new car that cost $55,000 in 2008 and in gold, that would cost you roughly 60 ounces of gold at the spot price of $930 per ounce. So, if the Dollar was never removed from the gold standard and all the inflation that has occurred because of the removal from the gold standard, that same car today would only cost you $1,200. Remove the $1,200 from $55,000 and you get $53,800 which is how much inflation this $1,200 item has risen by over the last one hundred years.
The original Dollar value is roughly $.02 cents in today's money. It's astounding to realise how much the Dollar has dropped in value. I will try to explain further. In 1964, $.25 would just about get you a gallon of gas at the pumps because in 1964 a quarter was made from 10% copper but 90% silver. Silver costing $17.20 per ounce makes the quarters value $3.11 and that quarter of 1964 can still give you a gallon of gas today. This shows that the value of gold and silver has hardly changed and that it's the currencies that are not tied to gold and silver that are fluctuating drastically.
This was the founding Fathers warning to us and exactly the reason why they tied the Dollar to gold and silver at the founding of the constitution. The over creating by the Federal Reserve of Dollars at their own behest is in reality another tax upon the American Citizens, it strips the dollar of what little value it has left in your pocket and in the long run continues to do so. While the prices of services and good rise and rise, you on the other hand are still being paid roughly the same, its the Dollars value or any other currencies for that matter, thats detachment from the gold standard is why their value is dropping. My hope is that the issue has been made clearer to you and in order to see a change, we as individuals have the right to invest our money where we know it'll be secure, such as precious metals and also to take a stand against the government's plans to bankrupt it's citizens as it keeps the Dollar detached from the gold standard.
I realise that there is some bold claims in this article that open your eyes to the wider money picture. For more reading, check out my blog http://howtobuy-gold.blogspot.com/ or go to my web site where you see different methods and where you can buy gold online and start investing today for your future at http://www.wheretobuy-gold.com Thank you for taking the time to read this article.
Monday, January 16, 2012
The Economic Role of Gold: A Brief Essay on How Gold Has Shaped Our Economy
Gold has significantly shaped the history of man, his economics and his over all perception of life to being a simple hunter gatherer to a man who is driven by the power of capitalism and understands the value of wealth and its possession. Gold when discovered nearly 40,000 years ago when Paleolithic man picked up a piece of rock which had gold deposits in it. Gold had never helped man develop tools of his early needs like arrows or spears or even for agricultural purposes. Being malleable, soft it did not have much use with early man. Bronze discovered about 10,000 years and silver later, were valued much more compared to gold which was discovered much earlier. A bright yellow illuminating object that may have caught the attention of early man was often traded as a valuable piece of object much later on as the system of barter did not have a place for gold nor was it used. Gold was probably used in some form as a shiny object that could have been used to some extent in jewelry and even for scaring the enemy when engaged in war. But it was only recently about 5000 years ago when the social status was devised and man divided the society into classes that he understood that this is a rare metal and thus precious and started using it in more aesthetic manners including jewelry, for worship and for trade. Gold started to be considered as a mark of royalty or power and richness and became a prerogative of the high and the powerful to be owned. Gold has always been considered to be incorruptible without blemish. In some cultures gold is synonymous to the power of the sun. The Aztecs and the Incas believed that gold came from the sun, considering it to be its sweat and excretion. The mighty and rich Egyptians considered there kings to be direct descendants of the sun and gold as the one true flesh of that king. Thus gold had a significant impact upon all these ancient empires and their cultures. The Egyptians at about 3000 BC were the first to start a monetary system entirely of gold and silver. Their power and influence across the Nile grew with the discovery of the Nubian gold mines. Exploitation of the Nubian mines lead to unimaginable wealth and the establishment of the first true great empire of the world. The Egyptians had established a system of economics and the first monetary exchange based on gold and silver and thus creating an economic order based out of currency and not barter.
Trade and the development of barter
Even since man has had the realization that he alone cannot provide for everything that he needs, he understood the importance of trade. When there was no money, people still traded using whatever they could lay their hands on. Shells, fruits, crop, and anything that was important and has some sort of value attached to it would be traded. This gave rise to a system of trade that we call as barter. Man would exchange a hunt with another for getting wine, exchange wine for clothes, and clothes for any tools that he would need. Generally the chief item of trade among the people of Asia and Europe was cattle. Cows and oxen were traded as means of exchange for goods and services rendered. This resulted in the specializations of trade and men started living in societies where each man had a role to play in the larger scheme of things. So a potter would still be able to east without knowing how to grow crops and a wine maker would have the pitchers that he needs to store his wine without having the know how. A common form of sustenance thus resulted in what we call as society. In some societies, still today, people would trade using items and not money as in coinage and paper currency. Precious metals came after cattle and started to be used as a supplementary form of exchange and then slowly took over as the primary form.
Why money was needed?
During the days when barter trade was prevalent every item would have a fixed exchange rate compared with the other items that were traded. 1 bag of rice for 2 new clothes, 20 bags of rice for a cow and so on. However in a simpler trading situation this would have been possible where the number if items on exchange were few. When the market expanded, things became complicated and more and items were started to be traded. Barter became complicated because hundreds and thousands of items now needed an exchange rate to be traded properly. This gave birth to money. When money was introduced, every item in the market had a fixed exchange rate based on a unit of currency or money.
Rise of gold as an international standard, why it was popular?
Gold has always been accepted universally. It has significant value attached to it which is why people readily accept it as a form of payment. The significance of gold as an international standard of payment rose when it was accepted internationally as a form of payment. This was during the hay days when gold standard operated as a basis of international payments. However the International Monetary Fund took gold out of the equation and ensured that it no more plays a significant role. Gold as a means of reserve in the international market fell from nearly 70% to a mere 3%.
During the years 1880 to 1914 gold formed the basis of payment internationally. All currencies were valued to a fixed amount of gold which was held in reserve. The governments would have to repay the amount of the printed currency in gold when presented. This was done to ensure that the paper currency which was in circulation has a fixed value and the governments would not print excessive amounts of paper currency and thus create cheap money in the process. The basic idea was to restore the confidence of the people on the circulated paper currency and ensure the survival of it.
However the international gold standard started to dwindle out and by 1913 the United States had about 90% of their money supply from paper money and demand deposits. However the scenario again changed after the first Great War. Post the First World War, there was a popular sentiment which wanted the old gold currency to be restored. High inflation and taxation had the entire Europe and America reeling. The United States was the first country to return back to the gold standard. This was followed by several European nations who also returned back to the gold standard. However during the First Great War the economies had been hit severely. The pressures of having run the war for years, the economies started to find the pinch and slowly started to detach themselves from the gold standard.
1934 was the year when the United States reeling under the pressures of the Great Depression, introduced the Gold Reserve Act. It practically gave a monopolistic control over possession of gold in the country to the government of United States. Private possession of gold was banned. The price of gold was sent to $35 an ounce and the dollar was devalued as well. The idea was to boost the economy by inducing production when gold was made rare in the market.
During the 1944 when most of the world was battling the Second World War, representatives of 44 allied nations met at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, for a conference held between July 1 and July 22. Their goal was to establish an international monetary body which would ensure that there is a set monetary exchange system among nations at a pegged rate. This led to the establishment of the International Monetary Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Gold was at that time the dominating metal and as such was considered to be the basis of the international payment currency. At that time most of the European nations were in huge debt and they started transferring their gold to the United States. This made the US Dollar appreciate greatly. Thus in the later years the US dollar become the dominating currency. US dollar at that time was backed by Gold and an exchange rate on gold was determined which led to it becoming the preferred currency of exchange.
However major countries like France and England started selling of their US Dollar reserves and traded them for gold from the US treasury. This led to a considerable decrease in the power of the US dollar in the international market. Added to this was the considerable strain put on the US economy during the ongoing Vietnam war which lead to the then President Nixon to stop the full convertibility of the US dollar to gold. This was the trigger that upset the whole Bretton Woods system.
With the collapse of the Bretton Woods systems in USA in 1973 ordinary citizens were no longer under the ban to purchase bullion and or invest in it. The abolishment of private possession of gold completely came off in the year 1975. Similar bans were also in existence in UK and Japan which also came off in the years 1979 and 1973 respectively. The world over liberalization of the private purchase of gold lead to some countries becoming major exporters and the yellow metal. Countries like Turkey, where gold import was previously banned, saw its domestic, gold prices jump 85% following the lifting of the ban on imports.
Why the Gold Standard to some extent was advantageous
A significant reason for the Gold Standard to be successful is that it provides absolutely no chance of a hyperinflation. The reason is that gold is tied to the currency and as such until the whole stock of gold was increased additional money could not be printed. In the hindsight that is the very reason why the US economy could not come out of the great depression of 1929 rather quickly. Since the money was tied with the gold, the US government had to look for other opportunities and tried to attract the foreign investors who would bring in their investment in the form of gold. Interest rates were increased for the investors and that means higher and more prohibitive interest rates for the domestic borrowers.
Another important advantage of the gold standard is that excessive printing of cheap money can be prevented another anti inflationary method. This would ideally put the entire money in circulation into a fixed price with the gold in reserve and that evidently results in a pressure on the government to pay off the amount in gold when demanded; a deterrent for printing excess money.
All currencies of the world has been at one time of the other been formed from the base gold and silver metals. The reason that gold and silver became popular and is still valued and possessed as a means of investment is that gold and silver are the only real currency that the world has known that has survived the vagaries of millennia's of political and economic turmoil. They were of great intrinsic value unlike the paper currency and can be exchanged easily for commodities and are widely accepted. However in the last few hundred years or so, paper currency of "Fiat" currency as we call it has come into existence and has taken over. Paper currency when it first started off was attached to this base gold currency. People knew that the exchange rate was fixed and one can trade in confidence as they were backed by gold. The fact that they were later detached from gold and silver, made them lose their confidence in paper currency. Say you are trading eggs for $4 a dozen in Seattle on Monday. If the price of eggs increases to $5 a dozen on Thursday you will probably wonder whether you are dealing at the right price. It is the confidence in a paper currency that makes it work.
Why gold has been a popular method of savings
In the 1920's if you wanted to buy a new pair of trousers you needed probably $10. Whether you spend that using a $10 printed currency note or use a $10 worth of gold coin it was irrelevant. In 2011 if you want to buy a trouser, that same $10 gold coin will buy you the pair of trousers but the $10 printed note will be useless. The reason is gold has an intrinsic value. To a large extent the prices of gold and for that matter even silver has not seen a downward spiral even during the greatest of depressions. Sometimes though the price of gold has certainly swayed but the same can be said of all precious materials and other commodities. During the Gold Decree the price of gild was fixed at 35 dollars to an ounce. Even the purchase price before that was fixed at a little over 20 dollars. In both these cases the price was set by the government of US and not due to market dynamics. During the last great depression even when most of the stocks took a beating and some more than 70%, gold stocks increased to over 400% and gave dividends to their investors. The two largest gold producing mines in USA and Canada managed to do this which speaks volumes about the persistence and strength of gold in any market situation. Thus people have always preferred gold as a mode of savings. It is like saving their money securely which is not going to devalue over time and waiting till the investment weather is good for further diversification of the portfolio.
Another reason why gold is a good investment option is the diversity that it brings to the overall portfolio. An investment expert will never ask you to put all your money in a single stock or investment option because of the inherent risks that it brings to the portfolio. A diversification is required to spread the risks. Gold being a hard currency gives more intrinsic value to your portfolios and credibility to it.
A significant disadvantage of gold is that it does not give dividends and the price of gold during an inflationary process is what provides the increase in the investment. It is more of the safety and stability of the investment which encourages buying gold. The remarkable nature of both gold and silver.to hold their prices and remain steady even though there is a considerable price deflation all around means that when you invest in gold your investment though not necessarily going to provide an immediate return, will provide a considerable gain of wealth when your compare the prices after some time.
The comparative price of gold to other commodities in the market has always been better. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has always been competitive with the price of gold. Even during a depression, when the prices of all commodities have gone down, the price of gold which may not have increased to more than what you had paid for it in the first place, the comparative price is more than what other commodities are. This can be further explained using a small example. Imagine that today you have purchased 20 ounce of gold (this is just a comparison). If you wish to purchase a car, only about 10 ounce will buy you a luxurious sedan. However another few years of waiting and the same sedan can be bought for only 15 ounce of gold. This is because of the price of gold which has gone up significantly compared to the other products in the market.
One aspect of investing in gold, silver, platinum and palladium the main four precious metals that you can buy, is the storage costs that you need to take into consideration. Physically buying gold and storing them a location that is under your control is not advisable because of the inherent risks of it. As such when you open a holding account online or with a bank they will offer you the storage options at a nominal cost. When investing precious metals, the cost of storage is also to be taken into consideration. Any cost which is prohibitive for storage must be considered against the inherent gains that the holding will provide after a period of time. An estimated storage costs for holding gold is 0.015% from 1 to 49,999 gold grams stored in at London, Zurich or Hong Kong. The costs also include the insurance coverage against theft for the investment.
Comparatively the regular basic savings and other investments options would appear more attractive as they don't require storage costs, but the fact remains that their volatility in a negative market situation works to their disadvantage. A soft currency investment option is never a hard currency and lacks the intrinsic value that hard currency like gold, silver, palladium or platinum has. Thus when markets crash the inherent depreciates overnight and people lose their life's savings. Gold on the other hand is a reserve currency which is accepted under any market situation and as such a better option.
Gold crash vs. hyperinflation
Gold is one commodity that has always been looked with confidence by the investors. An interesting fact about gold is that there is not much of it in the market. As such if paper money becomes obsolete tomorrow and the only mode of accepted payment becomes gold or silver, then we the people who does not possess gold but only electronic balances of money, will have no where to go. If we rush to buy gold all the gold and silver and other precious metals would have been gone. So basically all our huge savings, investments and bonds will have vanished. A printed paper currency which is being produced in much quantity as required by the economy cannot be relied and the only thing that will matter when paper money fails is what you have in intrinsic value that is gold. One of my colleagues had once said me, "gold at $1000 a once, this is not a price one should invest into something." However the fact remains that it is not the price at the end of the day that counts, but the intrinsic value that you possess. Paper money in itself does not worth anything; gold does. Thus when paper money will become defunct, the only things that will remain of value are the precious metals.
Irrespective of that, gold prices have also suffered a price deviation. In recent years as during the depression of 2008, when commodity prices were going down and the real estate and financial markets crashed, people started to sell off their investment and hoard up the dollars. Even the price of the yellow metal, which was otherwise so popular, also went down. People started to sell of their gold investment and realize the investment in cash. This resulted in gold prices falling by about 30 percent in November of 2008 from the March 2008 price of $1000 per ounce.
A real possibility of gold crash could be if and when there is a sudden increase in the supply of gold in the market. Due to inherent rules of a demand and supply of any commodity in the market which drives the price of it, gold prices can severely depreciate if there is a significant rise of the supply of gold in the market. However for the last few decades there has not been a single discovery of a gold deposit that is easily accessible in an area where there is no conflict or political instability to encourage an increase of gold supply into the market. It is unlikely something of that sort happening in the near future.
There has been no dearth of speculation as to where the price of gold will reach in the next few years. The internet is abuzz with speculations and predictions. Some people have predicted a $3000 value per ounce for the precious metal not something that is entirely impossible. Other market experts have even predicted a $10,000 value of the yellow metal. However, it is any body's guess to predict which way gold prices are going to go.
Again some schools of opinion say that anything that is being traded and is consistently rising in price has the tendency to correct itself out at one point of time. Just like in a share market which has hundreds and thousands of companies listed and their shares traded. Evidently the shares being traded are only limited in numbers and the company's cannot keep adding more and more shares as they are being traded. Thus sooner rather than later a situation will arrive when the shares of the company's will rise to a level that no one will be able to invest in them. However nothing can simply go on increasing indefinitely and as such price will stall at one point of time. There will be a price fall after that. As soon as prices start to fall, people who have invested their life's savings will want to cash out and escape the tumbling share market. What follow is more sellers in the market than buyers. Prices will tumble and values will get eroded overnight. A once booming market will then be followed by a recession. Recession will follow simply because there will be less money in circulation. People who have lost their savings will have but no option but to hold on to what they have and thus the market will have significantly less demand for goods and services.
Hyperinflation has its own effects on the economy. A simple explanation of hyperinflation is when there is a large increase of money in the market which is not supported by the GDP of a country that means more purchasing power than can be supplied with the availability of goods and services, hyperinflation sets in such conditions. One way to explain a situation like this is by giving an example. Say there is a massive crop failure. Consumers need the goods but they are unable to buy it because of the minimal amount in supply. Thus the prices of the goods are going to go up.
In the modern world, governments of the world has the power to print money as they wish and that has been possible because of the absence of a pegged exchange rate to an object of intrinsic value. Thus in order to correct the problem of job cuts and to revive the economy, governments are spending billions of dollars. One would imagine that this would come from taxes but in an economy which is already reeling with absence of jobs and there is no real inkling of hope that jobs are getting back in drones, increased taxes will only add to the misery. Thus governments are resorting to other forms of funding which is to print more money. Indirectly they are also fuelling the inflationary forces.
An increasing price of gold can be attributed to a bubble that is being created because of the gold mania that we are currently experiencing. Some speculators are expecting gold prices to touch $5000 an ounce and every body seems to be coming out with a speculation of their own and the internet is abuzz these days. We are currently seeing the same kind of mania that we had before the economy took a down turn when the real estate markets crashed. Why would the gold price be a mania, you ask? Gold is in a relatively fixed amount of production. It is one metal that has a limited supply and the production is also limited based on the availability of the gold mines around the world. However contrary to the supply demand is ever increasing. We all know that gold has an intrinsic value and is along with other precious metals like silver, palladium or platinum is readily accepted world wide and is treated as a reserve currency. Even if all Fiat currencies fails to become confetti and the banks fail around the globe the real possession value of gold is not going to fail and it will continue to be accepted. Thus the understandable urge to possess gold as a reserve asset. However the supply of gold is not going to increase to the demand of the consumers and thus the prices will continue to be pushed beyond the limits of a common man. The same way when the property prices went on into a dizzying height and pushed the real consumers out of the market due to the influx of speculators and then crashed miserably when defaults started happening similarly gold prices will stall at a point. If it starts to go down as the market starts to correct itself, we can see a recession setting in or at least a bear market.
An improving job market and a strengthening dollar can see a correction in the gold prices as has been seen in the first quarter of the year. As per a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics non farm payrolls have increased by 216,000 which is higher than the consensus expectation of 185,000. This immediately saw dip in the gold prices with investors cashing in on the yellow metal and migrating to stocks instead.
Investment in Gold via Dollar Cost Averaging
Since the intrinsic value of gold is never challenged and the fact remains that it is a true reserve currency to the world, an investment in gold at any point (unless it is going over the roof and is due to correct itself imminently) is a safe method to store your net values. One way to ensure that the value of gold your investing is averaged out and represents a lower end of the price rise is to employ a method of Dollar Cost averaging. You invest a fixed amount of money periodically over a fixed period of time. This in a rising gold price market initially will bring in more gold than the later investments. The benefits of this system is that over a period of time when the markets fluctuate, your investment is going to be marginalized and you will suffer less than if you had invested the entire amount in one go.
A lot of brokerage firms will offer this service using an automated debit system from your bank. That way you don't have to actually do the transactions manually and have to remember yourself to make the payment every time it is due. Else you can manually make the payment.
Purchasing Gold using Value Averaging
Gold has been one of the many and by and large a popular method of storing assets and values. It is one of the few precious metals which are rare and have an intrinsic value attached to it because of its rarity. This is what makes it more susceptible to fall back to when there is a market crash as we saw in 2008. Real estate was another such market but when the real estate market crashed devaluing values held in such assets, people had to fall back on the time tested yellow metal for salvation.
A lot of people have experimented using the Dollar Cost averaging and the Value Averaging methods of investing in the yellow metal. While we have discussed abut dollar cost averaging in the previous chapter, we will discuss about value averaging here. Value averaging is somewhat similar to dollar cost averaging, in terms of the over all approach of investing on a monthly basis. However it differs to the former by the fact that the investment is directly in proportion to the fluctuations that the investment has had in between the two investment dates. Say a person has invested in some stocks to the tune of $5000. He has set an amount of $100 for the investment to grow by the next month when the next investment date is. Say on the day the additional investment is to be made; the total price of his investment has increased to $5057. That means he has to make an additional investment of only $43 to raise his total investment to $5100. Similar to a dollar cost averaging method, in a market where the prices are increasing, one has to buy fewer shares and more when the prices are going down. The value wise difference between the two methods has not been too much in a same period of price fluctuations. This method can be gainfully used in the manner of investment into Gold. When the price is lower amount invested will buy more quantities of gold then when the price is higher. However over a reasonable period of time the cost of gold acquired will be marginalized reflecting a lower price.
Ways to invest in Gold and Silver
Gold can be purchased either as a physical holding of bullion, coins or jewelry or a stock held at a secured vault holding some where else. A lot of registered gold firms sell gold coins and bullion accepts applications. Ensure before investing in gold through one of these companies, to check with the better business bureau and find out more about the company and its background.
Find the current price of gold and silver over the phone and find out everything that you need to know before placing the order. Once you are satisfied place the order and confirm it when it is verified by either phone or email. Once the order is verified, make the payment using a wire transfer to check payment and wait for the confirmation of the purchase being made.
Rajib Mukherjee is a freelance article writer from India, specializing on technical, finance, travel, internet and internet technology related content.
Trade and the development of barter
Even since man has had the realization that he alone cannot provide for everything that he needs, he understood the importance of trade. When there was no money, people still traded using whatever they could lay their hands on. Shells, fruits, crop, and anything that was important and has some sort of value attached to it would be traded. This gave rise to a system of trade that we call as barter. Man would exchange a hunt with another for getting wine, exchange wine for clothes, and clothes for any tools that he would need. Generally the chief item of trade among the people of Asia and Europe was cattle. Cows and oxen were traded as means of exchange for goods and services rendered. This resulted in the specializations of trade and men started living in societies where each man had a role to play in the larger scheme of things. So a potter would still be able to east without knowing how to grow crops and a wine maker would have the pitchers that he needs to store his wine without having the know how. A common form of sustenance thus resulted in what we call as society. In some societies, still today, people would trade using items and not money as in coinage and paper currency. Precious metals came after cattle and started to be used as a supplementary form of exchange and then slowly took over as the primary form.
Why money was needed?
During the days when barter trade was prevalent every item would have a fixed exchange rate compared with the other items that were traded. 1 bag of rice for 2 new clothes, 20 bags of rice for a cow and so on. However in a simpler trading situation this would have been possible where the number if items on exchange were few. When the market expanded, things became complicated and more and items were started to be traded. Barter became complicated because hundreds and thousands of items now needed an exchange rate to be traded properly. This gave birth to money. When money was introduced, every item in the market had a fixed exchange rate based on a unit of currency or money.
Rise of gold as an international standard, why it was popular?
Gold has always been accepted universally. It has significant value attached to it which is why people readily accept it as a form of payment. The significance of gold as an international standard of payment rose when it was accepted internationally as a form of payment. This was during the hay days when gold standard operated as a basis of international payments. However the International Monetary Fund took gold out of the equation and ensured that it no more plays a significant role. Gold as a means of reserve in the international market fell from nearly 70% to a mere 3%.
During the years 1880 to 1914 gold formed the basis of payment internationally. All currencies were valued to a fixed amount of gold which was held in reserve. The governments would have to repay the amount of the printed currency in gold when presented. This was done to ensure that the paper currency which was in circulation has a fixed value and the governments would not print excessive amounts of paper currency and thus create cheap money in the process. The basic idea was to restore the confidence of the people on the circulated paper currency and ensure the survival of it.
However the international gold standard started to dwindle out and by 1913 the United States had about 90% of their money supply from paper money and demand deposits. However the scenario again changed after the first Great War. Post the First World War, there was a popular sentiment which wanted the old gold currency to be restored. High inflation and taxation had the entire Europe and America reeling. The United States was the first country to return back to the gold standard. This was followed by several European nations who also returned back to the gold standard. However during the First Great War the economies had been hit severely. The pressures of having run the war for years, the economies started to find the pinch and slowly started to detach themselves from the gold standard.
1934 was the year when the United States reeling under the pressures of the Great Depression, introduced the Gold Reserve Act. It practically gave a monopolistic control over possession of gold in the country to the government of United States. Private possession of gold was banned. The price of gold was sent to $35 an ounce and the dollar was devalued as well. The idea was to boost the economy by inducing production when gold was made rare in the market.
During the 1944 when most of the world was battling the Second World War, representatives of 44 allied nations met at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, for a conference held between July 1 and July 22. Their goal was to establish an international monetary body which would ensure that there is a set monetary exchange system among nations at a pegged rate. This led to the establishment of the International Monetary Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Gold was at that time the dominating metal and as such was considered to be the basis of the international payment currency. At that time most of the European nations were in huge debt and they started transferring their gold to the United States. This made the US Dollar appreciate greatly. Thus in the later years the US dollar become the dominating currency. US dollar at that time was backed by Gold and an exchange rate on gold was determined which led to it becoming the preferred currency of exchange.
However major countries like France and England started selling of their US Dollar reserves and traded them for gold from the US treasury. This led to a considerable decrease in the power of the US dollar in the international market. Added to this was the considerable strain put on the US economy during the ongoing Vietnam war which lead to the then President Nixon to stop the full convertibility of the US dollar to gold. This was the trigger that upset the whole Bretton Woods system.
With the collapse of the Bretton Woods systems in USA in 1973 ordinary citizens were no longer under the ban to purchase bullion and or invest in it. The abolishment of private possession of gold completely came off in the year 1975. Similar bans were also in existence in UK and Japan which also came off in the years 1979 and 1973 respectively. The world over liberalization of the private purchase of gold lead to some countries becoming major exporters and the yellow metal. Countries like Turkey, where gold import was previously banned, saw its domestic, gold prices jump 85% following the lifting of the ban on imports.
Why the Gold Standard to some extent was advantageous
A significant reason for the Gold Standard to be successful is that it provides absolutely no chance of a hyperinflation. The reason is that gold is tied to the currency and as such until the whole stock of gold was increased additional money could not be printed. In the hindsight that is the very reason why the US economy could not come out of the great depression of 1929 rather quickly. Since the money was tied with the gold, the US government had to look for other opportunities and tried to attract the foreign investors who would bring in their investment in the form of gold. Interest rates were increased for the investors and that means higher and more prohibitive interest rates for the domestic borrowers.
Another important advantage of the gold standard is that excessive printing of cheap money can be prevented another anti inflationary method. This would ideally put the entire money in circulation into a fixed price with the gold in reserve and that evidently results in a pressure on the government to pay off the amount in gold when demanded; a deterrent for printing excess money.
All currencies of the world has been at one time of the other been formed from the base gold and silver metals. The reason that gold and silver became popular and is still valued and possessed as a means of investment is that gold and silver are the only real currency that the world has known that has survived the vagaries of millennia's of political and economic turmoil. They were of great intrinsic value unlike the paper currency and can be exchanged easily for commodities and are widely accepted. However in the last few hundred years or so, paper currency of "Fiat" currency as we call it has come into existence and has taken over. Paper currency when it first started off was attached to this base gold currency. People knew that the exchange rate was fixed and one can trade in confidence as they were backed by gold. The fact that they were later detached from gold and silver, made them lose their confidence in paper currency. Say you are trading eggs for $4 a dozen in Seattle on Monday. If the price of eggs increases to $5 a dozen on Thursday you will probably wonder whether you are dealing at the right price. It is the confidence in a paper currency that makes it work.
Why gold has been a popular method of savings
In the 1920's if you wanted to buy a new pair of trousers you needed probably $10. Whether you spend that using a $10 printed currency note or use a $10 worth of gold coin it was irrelevant. In 2011 if you want to buy a trouser, that same $10 gold coin will buy you the pair of trousers but the $10 printed note will be useless. The reason is gold has an intrinsic value. To a large extent the prices of gold and for that matter even silver has not seen a downward spiral even during the greatest of depressions. Sometimes though the price of gold has certainly swayed but the same can be said of all precious materials and other commodities. During the Gold Decree the price of gild was fixed at 35 dollars to an ounce. Even the purchase price before that was fixed at a little over 20 dollars. In both these cases the price was set by the government of US and not due to market dynamics. During the last great depression even when most of the stocks took a beating and some more than 70%, gold stocks increased to over 400% and gave dividends to their investors. The two largest gold producing mines in USA and Canada managed to do this which speaks volumes about the persistence and strength of gold in any market situation. Thus people have always preferred gold as a mode of savings. It is like saving their money securely which is not going to devalue over time and waiting till the investment weather is good for further diversification of the portfolio.
Another reason why gold is a good investment option is the diversity that it brings to the overall portfolio. An investment expert will never ask you to put all your money in a single stock or investment option because of the inherent risks that it brings to the portfolio. A diversification is required to spread the risks. Gold being a hard currency gives more intrinsic value to your portfolios and credibility to it.
A significant disadvantage of gold is that it does not give dividends and the price of gold during an inflationary process is what provides the increase in the investment. It is more of the safety and stability of the investment which encourages buying gold. The remarkable nature of both gold and silver.to hold their prices and remain steady even though there is a considerable price deflation all around means that when you invest in gold your investment though not necessarily going to provide an immediate return, will provide a considerable gain of wealth when your compare the prices after some time.
The comparative price of gold to other commodities in the market has always been better. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has always been competitive with the price of gold. Even during a depression, when the prices of all commodities have gone down, the price of gold which may not have increased to more than what you had paid for it in the first place, the comparative price is more than what other commodities are. This can be further explained using a small example. Imagine that today you have purchased 20 ounce of gold (this is just a comparison). If you wish to purchase a car, only about 10 ounce will buy you a luxurious sedan. However another few years of waiting and the same sedan can be bought for only 15 ounce of gold. This is because of the price of gold which has gone up significantly compared to the other products in the market.
One aspect of investing in gold, silver, platinum and palladium the main four precious metals that you can buy, is the storage costs that you need to take into consideration. Physically buying gold and storing them a location that is under your control is not advisable because of the inherent risks of it. As such when you open a holding account online or with a bank they will offer you the storage options at a nominal cost. When investing precious metals, the cost of storage is also to be taken into consideration. Any cost which is prohibitive for storage must be considered against the inherent gains that the holding will provide after a period of time. An estimated storage costs for holding gold is 0.015% from 1 to 49,999 gold grams stored in at London, Zurich or Hong Kong. The costs also include the insurance coverage against theft for the investment.
Comparatively the regular basic savings and other investments options would appear more attractive as they don't require storage costs, but the fact remains that their volatility in a negative market situation works to their disadvantage. A soft currency investment option is never a hard currency and lacks the intrinsic value that hard currency like gold, silver, palladium or platinum has. Thus when markets crash the inherent depreciates overnight and people lose their life's savings. Gold on the other hand is a reserve currency which is accepted under any market situation and as such a better option.
Gold crash vs. hyperinflation
Gold is one commodity that has always been looked with confidence by the investors. An interesting fact about gold is that there is not much of it in the market. As such if paper money becomes obsolete tomorrow and the only mode of accepted payment becomes gold or silver, then we the people who does not possess gold but only electronic balances of money, will have no where to go. If we rush to buy gold all the gold and silver and other precious metals would have been gone. So basically all our huge savings, investments and bonds will have vanished. A printed paper currency which is being produced in much quantity as required by the economy cannot be relied and the only thing that will matter when paper money fails is what you have in intrinsic value that is gold. One of my colleagues had once said me, "gold at $1000 a once, this is not a price one should invest into something." However the fact remains that it is not the price at the end of the day that counts, but the intrinsic value that you possess. Paper money in itself does not worth anything; gold does. Thus when paper money will become defunct, the only things that will remain of value are the precious metals.
Irrespective of that, gold prices have also suffered a price deviation. In recent years as during the depression of 2008, when commodity prices were going down and the real estate and financial markets crashed, people started to sell off their investment and hoard up the dollars. Even the price of the yellow metal, which was otherwise so popular, also went down. People started to sell of their gold investment and realize the investment in cash. This resulted in gold prices falling by about 30 percent in November of 2008 from the March 2008 price of $1000 per ounce.
A real possibility of gold crash could be if and when there is a sudden increase in the supply of gold in the market. Due to inherent rules of a demand and supply of any commodity in the market which drives the price of it, gold prices can severely depreciate if there is a significant rise of the supply of gold in the market. However for the last few decades there has not been a single discovery of a gold deposit that is easily accessible in an area where there is no conflict or political instability to encourage an increase of gold supply into the market. It is unlikely something of that sort happening in the near future.
There has been no dearth of speculation as to where the price of gold will reach in the next few years. The internet is abuzz with speculations and predictions. Some people have predicted a $3000 value per ounce for the precious metal not something that is entirely impossible. Other market experts have even predicted a $10,000 value of the yellow metal. However, it is any body's guess to predict which way gold prices are going to go.
Again some schools of opinion say that anything that is being traded and is consistently rising in price has the tendency to correct itself out at one point of time. Just like in a share market which has hundreds and thousands of companies listed and their shares traded. Evidently the shares being traded are only limited in numbers and the company's cannot keep adding more and more shares as they are being traded. Thus sooner rather than later a situation will arrive when the shares of the company's will rise to a level that no one will be able to invest in them. However nothing can simply go on increasing indefinitely and as such price will stall at one point of time. There will be a price fall after that. As soon as prices start to fall, people who have invested their life's savings will want to cash out and escape the tumbling share market. What follow is more sellers in the market than buyers. Prices will tumble and values will get eroded overnight. A once booming market will then be followed by a recession. Recession will follow simply because there will be less money in circulation. People who have lost their savings will have but no option but to hold on to what they have and thus the market will have significantly less demand for goods and services.
Hyperinflation has its own effects on the economy. A simple explanation of hyperinflation is when there is a large increase of money in the market which is not supported by the GDP of a country that means more purchasing power than can be supplied with the availability of goods and services, hyperinflation sets in such conditions. One way to explain a situation like this is by giving an example. Say there is a massive crop failure. Consumers need the goods but they are unable to buy it because of the minimal amount in supply. Thus the prices of the goods are going to go up.
In the modern world, governments of the world has the power to print money as they wish and that has been possible because of the absence of a pegged exchange rate to an object of intrinsic value. Thus in order to correct the problem of job cuts and to revive the economy, governments are spending billions of dollars. One would imagine that this would come from taxes but in an economy which is already reeling with absence of jobs and there is no real inkling of hope that jobs are getting back in drones, increased taxes will only add to the misery. Thus governments are resorting to other forms of funding which is to print more money. Indirectly they are also fuelling the inflationary forces.
An increasing price of gold can be attributed to a bubble that is being created because of the gold mania that we are currently experiencing. Some speculators are expecting gold prices to touch $5000 an ounce and every body seems to be coming out with a speculation of their own and the internet is abuzz these days. We are currently seeing the same kind of mania that we had before the economy took a down turn when the real estate markets crashed. Why would the gold price be a mania, you ask? Gold is in a relatively fixed amount of production. It is one metal that has a limited supply and the production is also limited based on the availability of the gold mines around the world. However contrary to the supply demand is ever increasing. We all know that gold has an intrinsic value and is along with other precious metals like silver, palladium or platinum is readily accepted world wide and is treated as a reserve currency. Even if all Fiat currencies fails to become confetti and the banks fail around the globe the real possession value of gold is not going to fail and it will continue to be accepted. Thus the understandable urge to possess gold as a reserve asset. However the supply of gold is not going to increase to the demand of the consumers and thus the prices will continue to be pushed beyond the limits of a common man. The same way when the property prices went on into a dizzying height and pushed the real consumers out of the market due to the influx of speculators and then crashed miserably when defaults started happening similarly gold prices will stall at a point. If it starts to go down as the market starts to correct itself, we can see a recession setting in or at least a bear market.
An improving job market and a strengthening dollar can see a correction in the gold prices as has been seen in the first quarter of the year. As per a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics non farm payrolls have increased by 216,000 which is higher than the consensus expectation of 185,000. This immediately saw dip in the gold prices with investors cashing in on the yellow metal and migrating to stocks instead.
Investment in Gold via Dollar Cost Averaging
Since the intrinsic value of gold is never challenged and the fact remains that it is a true reserve currency to the world, an investment in gold at any point (unless it is going over the roof and is due to correct itself imminently) is a safe method to store your net values. One way to ensure that the value of gold your investing is averaged out and represents a lower end of the price rise is to employ a method of Dollar Cost averaging. You invest a fixed amount of money periodically over a fixed period of time. This in a rising gold price market initially will bring in more gold than the later investments. The benefits of this system is that over a period of time when the markets fluctuate, your investment is going to be marginalized and you will suffer less than if you had invested the entire amount in one go.
A lot of brokerage firms will offer this service using an automated debit system from your bank. That way you don't have to actually do the transactions manually and have to remember yourself to make the payment every time it is due. Else you can manually make the payment.
Purchasing Gold using Value Averaging
Gold has been one of the many and by and large a popular method of storing assets and values. It is one of the few precious metals which are rare and have an intrinsic value attached to it because of its rarity. This is what makes it more susceptible to fall back to when there is a market crash as we saw in 2008. Real estate was another such market but when the real estate market crashed devaluing values held in such assets, people had to fall back on the time tested yellow metal for salvation.
A lot of people have experimented using the Dollar Cost averaging and the Value Averaging methods of investing in the yellow metal. While we have discussed abut dollar cost averaging in the previous chapter, we will discuss about value averaging here. Value averaging is somewhat similar to dollar cost averaging, in terms of the over all approach of investing on a monthly basis. However it differs to the former by the fact that the investment is directly in proportion to the fluctuations that the investment has had in between the two investment dates. Say a person has invested in some stocks to the tune of $5000. He has set an amount of $100 for the investment to grow by the next month when the next investment date is. Say on the day the additional investment is to be made; the total price of his investment has increased to $5057. That means he has to make an additional investment of only $43 to raise his total investment to $5100. Similar to a dollar cost averaging method, in a market where the prices are increasing, one has to buy fewer shares and more when the prices are going down. The value wise difference between the two methods has not been too much in a same period of price fluctuations. This method can be gainfully used in the manner of investment into Gold. When the price is lower amount invested will buy more quantities of gold then when the price is higher. However over a reasonable period of time the cost of gold acquired will be marginalized reflecting a lower price.
Ways to invest in Gold and Silver
Gold can be purchased either as a physical holding of bullion, coins or jewelry or a stock held at a secured vault holding some where else. A lot of registered gold firms sell gold coins and bullion accepts applications. Ensure before investing in gold through one of these companies, to check with the better business bureau and find out more about the company and its background.
Find the current price of gold and silver over the phone and find out everything that you need to know before placing the order. Once you are satisfied place the order and confirm it when it is verified by either phone or email. Once the order is verified, make the payment using a wire transfer to check payment and wait for the confirmation of the purchase being made.
Rajib Mukherjee is a freelance article writer from India, specializing on technical, finance, travel, internet and internet technology related content.
The Fallacy of Gold and Primacy of Silver
The decade long flight of wealth from fiat currencies and naked stocks, to gold, as a safe haven to guard against economic chaos and worldwide depression, is a curious aberration of market speculation. Considering the vast amount of information available to those wealthy enough to be able to own gold, and the history of gold and silver as money to be used for purchasing consumables; one wonders why companies, banks, and persons of wealth, along with their financial advisors, are so poorly informed about the impracticality of owning gold as a potential emergency money for individuals and businesses; especially considering the current very distorted relative value of gold to silver.
Since I am more than sixty years of age I can reminisce that I grew up with silver money in my pocket, though I do not ever recall even seeing any gold money; and my parents, grandparents, and great grandparents all had silver money in their pockets, nor did they ever speak of having or using gold as money.
While silver was domestic money for more than 100-years here in the U.S., both as coin and currency backed by silver; and was used by consumers to purchase their food, clothes, and shelter. Gold, on the other hand, has been used by governments, banks, and international businesses during the past century to settle international trade accounts, and not as domestic money. Both gold and silver ceased to be used as money by banks and government by 1971. So buying gold to hold for an eventual use as domestic money to purchase consumables is incredibly silly, if not outright stupid.
Gold and silver have been mined, in the most recent century, at a ratio of about 10-ounces of silver for each 1-ounce of gold. In a hard currency economy where both metals would only be used as money and all production would be sold to governments to coin stable money, the relative price would be 10-to-1; that is, each ounce of gold would exchange for 10-ounces of silver. Yet the commodity markets have at this time (Nov. 2011) continually traded these metals in a range that is approximately 1-ounce of gold for 50-ounces of silver. In the past 20 years it has been as high as 1-ounce of gold for 100-ounces of silver; and as low as 1-to-30.
It is important for people purchasing gold and silver to question why this market is so skewed. First off, gold and silver are not used as money in the U.S. economy; nor does our government purchase or sell any significant amount of these metals annually, except in the production of non-monetary bullion coins. Consider that more than 50% of all gold mined annually is stored in bars or stamped into investment coins by several countries; while another large portion goes into jewelry and is relatively easily recoverable back to bullion. The world has accumulated more than 4.3 billion ounces of gold and the stock pile is growing around 75-million ounces per year. Silver is a very different story; for the past generation, more silver is consumed annually by industry than is mined.
Even though mining has increased the annual production of silver more than 50% in thirty years, worldwide industrial demand has increased even more; such that the above ground stocks of silver in the 1970's was around 24 billion ounces and has declined to between 18 and 19 billion ounces today; a large portion of which is not easily recoverable to bullion. Even if all the silver tied up in film, electronics, plumbing, military hardware, silverware, medical bandages, industrial catalysts, jewelry, anti-microbial clothes, etc., was available to serve as doomsday money there is still less than 5-ounces of silver available to each ounce of gold to serve as money. So 5-to-1 in quantity supports and affirms the current 50-to-1 price difference, right?
Actually, there is a lot of missing information about gold and silver. Because the market is always right, the 50-to-1 ratio has to be correct at this time, in this economy; the law of supply and demand can be manipulated, but it cannot be broken. Gold production is constrained such that a great deal of the above ground gold is mined and stored in a cave to cave sequestration by governments, banks, precious metal investment companies, and ETFs; all hoarding a lot of gold and some silver. In essence little new gold, relative to hoarded stockpiles, is available to be owned by individuals as bullion, while essentially all silver, both mine production and stockpiles is for sale to the highest bidder for industrial consumption. Gold is artificially high in price relative to its quantity above ground because of hoarding; which is done to promote a high price and facilitate price control. The markets in gold and silver are not free markets; supply and price are manipulated to benefit governments, banks, and industries. A great deal of newly mined silver is sold by miners at very low prices to benefit industry, presumably to gain help from the financial markets in having the gold market managed in such a way that prices are kept very high to benefit miners; and to give a false wealth effect to governments and banks that sequester gold. Considering that most of these large mining companies are publicly owned; the dumping of silver at prices as low as 10% of the spot price seems to disparage their stockholders unless there is a price benefit to their gold production side of the precious metal market.
The cave-to-cave aspect of gold comes from the vast system of caves made by miners to remove gold ore; refine a fraction of that ore into gold bars; which are to a large extent bought by governments, banks, and ETFs and immediately put back into concrete caves with thick steel doors, to keep it locked away as a hoard, and not likely to ever be used as money by citizens to purchase consumables. So if the 50-to-1 price ratio reflects the available amount of silver to gold, and if there are 18-billion ounces of silver that could be made available for exchange and consumption by markets, then there are only 360-million ounces of gold available for exchange and consumption by the markets. At least that is the quantity relationship supported by the lack of information to the users, holders, and investors of gold and silver. But this quantity relationship is false, since banks and governments have sequestered a little over 2-billion ounces of gold (about half of the mined gold), leaving 2-billion ounces or so to be held by individuals, businesses, and ETFs; and since several billion ounces of silver are sequestered in film, electronics, etc.; the amount of silver available to individuals as bullion is about 4-billion ounces; giving us a ratio of tradable bullion of 2-ounces of silver to 1-ounce of gold in the possession of private citizens, (this includes jewelry and bullion that could act as money). If silver is correctly priced at about $35.00 per ounce then gold should only command a price of two times greater or $70.00 per ounce; based simply on a supply foundation for price. Since the current price ratio is 50-to-1 this should lead us to suspect that the market is skewed by ignorance, misinformation, and probably disinformation through market management; which has created a speculative market in gold, in place of an investment market, which can only correct itself downward as individuals become more knowledgeable about the bullion supply and the more effective monetary use of silver versus gold.
There are some aspects of investing in gold that make it undesirable to own, should there be an economic meltdown. The first is that governments have the power to force those who possess gold to sell it to government at a price set by government. This was done in the U.S. by President Roosevelt in 1933, when private ownership of most gold became illegal; until President Nixon overturned this law in 1971. The price paid to those turning over their gold was $20.67 per ounce; while the following year, in 1934, President Roosevelt devalued the dollar 41% by declaring that the U.S. would exchange gold internationally at $35.00 per ounce. Why would anyone want to own gold when government can confiscate it and cheat the owner while doing so? Granted silver could also be confiscated by government, but because it is highly effective as domestic money and has many industrial uses, government would cause economic harm to itself by interfering in the use of silver as money in our economy.
An even worse problem for those who speculate in gold ETFs, ETCs, or purchase gold that is stored and managed by investment companies, is that they will never gain possession of the gold they have invested in; and therefore will not have any of the economic protection they were seeking when they bought into these investment scams. A full meltdown of the world economies could occur in a matter of days or at most a few weeks; and along with such a meltdown all forms of secure distribution of goods will fail; making it impossible to ship items such as gold and silver from any form of investment depository to individuals and businesses. Not to mention that in an economic meltdown all depositories of precious metals (which include all forms of precious metals investment companies) will be raided; and their gold and silver will be confiscated by governments in the political interests of those in power at the time.
There is a relatively new way to speculate in commodities like gold and silver called Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). A precious metal ETF is run be a trustee organization that buys and sells a commodity like gold and also sells paper certificates that act like stock in that ETF. The trustee hires a bank to be the custodian of its gold; to store it and to receive additional gold when the trustee buys, or deliver gold to a buyer when the trustee sells. You as an investor (actually you are a speculator in paper, not an investor in gold) can trade your paper ETF stock with other speculators, who as a group must pay all of the overhead and profit of the trustee organization, such as wages, rent, shipping, storage, insurance and brokers fees. It is impossible to find a chair in this game when the music stops, because the custodian banker is the only one with a chair and he is not playing the game; the banker already has the gold; you hope!
I recently had a good laugh at the expense of a popular television business program when one of their reporters was doing a series on gold, wherein he was in London and was allowed to view gold that he reported was owned by a very large Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). He viewed this gold only after surrendering all electronic devices that could pinpoint his location and after being driven around London in a blacked-out van to ensure he had no idea of his location. For some reason he felt privileged to take part is this charade, without his understanding that an ETF is an investing charade by design. If you do not know where your investment is, or its condition without an audit for quantity and quality, it might as well still be disbursed in the crust of the earth.
What proof can this reporter provide that the gold he saw belonged to that ETF? How often is that gold randomly assayed to prove that it is gold? What assurance can the ETF provide that any gold they possess will not be confiscated by the British government, or any government of any country that allows ETFs to store precious metals in their banks? What prevents the custodian of gold or silver from selling the metals to cover short positions or raise cash by selling metals to profit from price spikes, when they, as banks, speculate in the precious metal markets, without informing the trustee of the ETF?
If ETF funds are good investments, with their hidden gold and only ownership of paper stocks in the ETF, why not create an ETF on gold that is hidden in the earth and cannot be mined. It is estimated that we have mined roughly 5% of the gold in the earth and that future mining will extract a further 5%, leaving 90% of the gold in the earth to form the basis for our ETF. All sales and purchases of our stock will be through our broker at current spot prices. Since 5% represents over 4-billion ounces of gold, our earth ETF would be roughly 90-billion ounces of gold; and we know exactly where all of it is; we also know that it is secure and cannot be stolen or confiscated by government. If our fund needs to sell gold we can sell ownership of gold in cubic kilometers of the earth's crust and buy those ownership rights back, when our fund has better cash flow from higher gold prices that will bring in more investors. We will sell stock in our ETF for a premium (broker's fee) over and above our gold's value and live off that premium while speculators try to out speculate each other trading our ETF stock through our broker. Since cows need to be milked and investors need to be bilked; not only can we form one ETF in this manner, we can form hundreds using the same gold; the gold is irrelevant, because ETFs are all about paper. Outside of ETFs concentrating commodities that make it easier for governments to confiscate those commodities, there is nothing special about them; they are just a newer game in the gambling casino known as Wall Street; and in every ETF you are speculating in paper and only paper.
Then there are companies that will sell you gold and silver and offer to store it and insure you against its being lost or stolen for an annual storage fee and insurance fee. So when the economy goes into inflationary meltdown and you want to take possession, you will first need to have some sort of distribution network that is still operating and is trustworthy to bring your gold to you; then you will need to be sure that the company storing your gold has not repeatedly sold and resold your gold and stored it for many other investors that may also want delivery of "their gold", causing that company to simply send everyone a cash refund, if that. If you do not have it in your land you cannot sell it or spend it to support life and limb.
Consider the possible scenario occurring about mid-September 2013, the limited wheat and corn harvest is coming in, controlled by government after social declension brought on by political corruption and greed, and the self-fulfilling prophecies of December 21, 2012, cause an economic meltdown in the winter of 2012-2013. Anyway, by September 2013 there are long lines in the cities to purchase the meager amount of goods available. Government is by Marshal Law and standing in bread lines is the priority activity for most people. On one side of the street there is a very long line of people waiting to receive two slices of bread every other day from a government storehouse, provided they have the proper government identification; while on the other side of that street a line forms outside a bakery that is allowed to bake and sell their own surplus bread over and above what they bake for the government dole. The bakery sells on a black market that the government tolerates to avoid social unrest, but which the banks will be jealous about, because it shuts them out of these transactions.
The bakery sets a limit of two loaves per person per week at a profiteering price of one ounce silver per loaf; and a sign that says we do not make change; of course the baker will barter for other items of value, but he will not accept Federal Reserve Notes, because their value will be declining daily and they cannot be trusted to replenish the baker's flour, sugar, and shortening. In the line outside the bakery are a number of people with questionable assets that they hope they can trade for bread. Obviously the person with two 1-ounce silver pieces will get two loaves of bread and the person with six half-dollar coins (minted pre-1965) containing 2.16-ounces of silver will get two loaves of bread. What about the person that presents the baker a 1-ounce American gold eagle coin; what will they get? They will receive two loaves of bread for their 1-ounce of gold, provided that gold is exchanging for two or more ounces of silver; and they will receive no change. While the person with the nice ETF certificates, showing a picture of gold on each certificate, will presumably be able to exchange them for a piece of paper with a picture of a loaf of bread on it. Similarly for the person that owns gold stored by an investment company; the baker informs them that when they have gold or silver in their possession he will do business with them.
How will gold and silver compare in an economic meltdown? Well if gold is not confiscated by governments worldwide; and hoarded gold is not sold to businesses and individuals by governments and big banks, there would be about 1-billion ounces of gold in tradable bullion coins and bars and about 1-billion ounces of gold in the form of jewelry, that to some extent would serve as money if the gold content of any piece of jewelry can be estimated. Similarly for silver, there are about 4-billion ounces of silver in the form of coins and bullion worldwide and perhaps a billion ounces of sterling silver in the form of jewelry and silverware that could serve as tradable money. Leaving us a ratio of 2-ounces of gold to 5-ounces of silver, held by individuals, to serve as stable money worldwide.
These figures are actually declining right now in Europe and the U.S., because several companies are canvassing owners of gold and silver coins, bullion, and jewelry to sell it for cash; and as this recession continues, more and more gold and silver is disappearing into increasing industrial consumption and large depositories such as governments, banks, and ETF funds. Here in Eugene Oregon we have had more than 100 full page ads in the local newspaper in the past year, offering to purchase gold and silver in any form; not to mention the almost continuous television ads that have occurred over several months in the past year, soliciting viewers to sell unwanted gold jewelry for cash. This is causing a significant decline in the amount of gold and silver still available to individuals to be used as money in future economic duress; while this recycled gold is mostly sequestered to maintain the high price of gold, this recycled silver is sold mostly to industry, and resulting in depressed silver prices until it is consumed.
It is important to note that the ratio of gold to silver that is held by individuals is somewhere between 1-to 1 and 1-to-2.5 ounces of gold to ounces of silver. So the barter value (money value) of these metals in a failed economy will be parity or near parity; making an investment in gold for the purpose of personal economic preservation a very unwise act. It is silly to stockpile a shelter with champagne, caviar, and frozen pastries, against a threat of war or natural disaster, when apple juice, peanut butter, and crackers will sustain you just as well, for a fraction of the cost. It is therefore silly to buy gold to insure your economic future when purchasing silver would give you between 20 and 50 times the value at today's prices (gold around $1750 and silver around $35 per ounce each). Even for people playing the metals markets as investors or speculators, without concern or consideration of using gold as future money, the price of gold relative to silver will continue to change in favor of silver and the cost of investing in gold will require more capital for less profit relative to silver as time goes on.
So when is it a good time to buy silver or even gold if you are still so inclined? Anytime between now and a global depression, when you will presumably spend it to maintain a supply of food clothes, shelter, purchase raw and finished commodities, pay wages, make loans, etc. Individuals, small and large businesses, small and large banks should all have a stock of silver bullion from which they can profit from while stabilizing their local economy with liquid barter money. It does not matter what you pay to purchase silver; today's market value of silver cannot be associated with the value it will have in a global depression. If market conditions cause silver to drop in price to $10.00 per ounce it's a good deal, or if conditions cause it to rise to $100,00 per ounce its still a good deal; obviously a lower price allows you to acquire more, which for individuals should be at least 350 ounces (1-oz per day for expenses for one year); a two year supply would be more prudent, because it gets you through two growing seasons where food production and preservation should be recovering from the depression's initial shock to all forms of production.
The so-called free market concept of buying and selling any stock, bond, commodity or consumable is a fallacy. Open competition in energy and industrial commodities is a myth. Demand does not control supply; rather supply is managed to provide maximum profit no matter how great or small demand may be at any given time. If consumers reduce their demand for gasoline by 10%, the supply of crude oil and refined gasoline are reduced 10%. The oil companies just reduce the amount of oil they pump out of the ground and they reduce the amount of oil that is refined into gasoline, to keep prices as high as the market will bear. Oil is a totally managed market devoid of competition. Commodities like corn, soybeans, sugar, etc., are also controlled in production to provide maximum profits to those who process and distribute products made from these commodities; by controlling the amount of acreage to be used to grow any specific crop. Government programs to keep farm land idle and unproductive, are ongoing to limit supply to consumers so that producers can maximize profits in a managed market.
Gold and silver are similarly managed, but for different reasons. Outside of decorative accessories to our persons and a limited demand for industrial uses, gold is a totally useless metal, which is why most of it sits in vaults and safe-deposit boxes (caves). It serves no economic purpose outside personal decoration; it is no longer money. Gold is to a large extent hoarded, and has always been hoarded by governments and the controllers of economic activity.
Anything that is hoarded serves no purpose but to increase the wealth of the hoarder in a controlled managed market where supply to markets is limited by those hoarding gold to maximize the price a consumer is willing to pay. Oil companies hoard oil and gas in the earth, government and banks hoard gold in vaults, and they all profit from the management of their hoard, with respect to consumption. The latest gimmick to hoard commodities is ETFs. Gold mining companies can for example supply gold to an ETF in relatively large quantities, at a price beneficial to both, and let the ETF sell stock to speculators and use that income to purchase and hoard the miners' gold bit by bit over time. That gold is managed in supply to the market and hoarded in a location where it may easily be confiscated when economic conditions both permit and require that it be removed from the supply and demand activity of consumers or speculators and only be used to benefit the controllers of governments and economic activity (banks).
Because of the continuous relationship of cost of all goods and services in terms of dollars, year in and year out, consumers are mesmerized into thinking that the dollar is stable in its purchasing power; when in fact the dollar's instability continues to erode everyone's wealth, except those who create and loan dollars at interest rates that are higher than the rate of inflation. Consider that the current Federal Reserve Note has lost at least 98% of its purchasing power in the 98-year history of the Federal Reserve Private Banking Corporation; which seems like a sad tale when you consider that the primary responsibility written into the law that created this privately owned corporation was to maintain a stable value for the dollar and maintain full employment for all of our citizens who want to work. The dollar is not stable, has never been stable, and never will be stable, because there is more profit for banks with mild continuous inflation; while the Federal Reserve Private Banking Corporation now admits it cannot create jobs or economic conditions that increase jobs; the Federal Reserve can only protect, preserve, and enrich the banks that own the Fed. I always get a laugh out of the business channels on TV that report the rising prices of gold and silver as nearing or reaching record prices, given in U.S. dollars. They cannot seem to understand that gold would have to go above $2400.00 per ounce today to have the same purchasing power that it had in 1980 when it reached more than $800.00 per ounce; and silver would have to rise above $150.00 per ounce today to have the purchasing power that it had in 1980 when it reached over $50.00 per ounce. Gold at $1750.00 per ounce today is still about 25% below its record price; and silver at $35.00 per ounce is more than 70% below its record price. The dollar is not stable and continually rising prices of everything, year in and year out, prove it.
Silver is a great example of commodity management to protect the profitability of big banks. Unlike gold, silver is both an industrial commodity and a consumer money. Although it has not been used as money per se since 1980, when many retail businesses were accepting silver as payment in place of paper dollars during the last big run up in gold and silver amidst the 1970's high inflation; silver will rear its head as money in inflationary times; provided there is a large enough supply to assist bartering and displace fiat dollars. The big banks are very much concerned about the competition of silver as money and are actively supporting the removal of as much as they can from the possession of ordinary citizens. In times of accelerating inflation, economic activity can only be controlled by banks if everyone must use their instantly created fiat dollars at their profiteering rates of interest. Obviously banks make profits off debt; much of that debt is long term at relatively fixed interest rates. This represents fixed income for banks, which would be eroded by inflation if they cannot be rolled over into new loans at higher interest rates. While accelerating inflation causes many businesses and retailers to look to direct barter or stable replacement money for the fiat paper money that may be declining in purchasing power. Outside of direct barter, goods for goods, silver is the only competition for Federal Reserve Notes to fulfill the role of money.
So control and removal of silver from the pockets of consumers is essential to controlling economic activity during the upcoming run away inflation. The banks must force everyone to use their fiat money at their interest rates to maintain control of all economic activity from which they can profit. Hence all of this activity in the past year advertising for people to sell their gold and silver to refiners where it can be concentrated into bullion and stored by banks in ETFs, or sold into industrial consumption. Every time there is a run up in the price of gold and silver there is a coincident increase by refiners to purchase these metals, then the price falls, while the latest roundup of precious metals is consumed by ETFs, governments, and industry; then another round of price pumping removes more gold and silver from personal possession, until there will be insufficient gold and especially silver to compete with Federal Reserve Notes as money in a failed and hyper-inflating economy. But without silver to act as a relatively stable currency during a depression involving hyper-inflation of Federal Reserve Notes, economic revitalization will be nearly impossible, because continually devaluing fiat dollars will not be trusted or exchanged for any significant transactions and direct barter is too slow a process to significantly and quickly improve any economy.
Oh well, the music will soon stop; and though the banker appears to have the only chair, that chair has no legs, so the game must start over from scratch; i.e., candles, hand tools, hard money, physical labor.
Craig D. Hanks
November 2011
http://www.amazon.com/Social-Benchmarks-Craig-Hanks/dp/1440490031/ref=sr_1_34?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1231176281&sr=1-34
Since I am more than sixty years of age I can reminisce that I grew up with silver money in my pocket, though I do not ever recall even seeing any gold money; and my parents, grandparents, and great grandparents all had silver money in their pockets, nor did they ever speak of having or using gold as money.
While silver was domestic money for more than 100-years here in the U.S., both as coin and currency backed by silver; and was used by consumers to purchase their food, clothes, and shelter. Gold, on the other hand, has been used by governments, banks, and international businesses during the past century to settle international trade accounts, and not as domestic money. Both gold and silver ceased to be used as money by banks and government by 1971. So buying gold to hold for an eventual use as domestic money to purchase consumables is incredibly silly, if not outright stupid.
Gold and silver have been mined, in the most recent century, at a ratio of about 10-ounces of silver for each 1-ounce of gold. In a hard currency economy where both metals would only be used as money and all production would be sold to governments to coin stable money, the relative price would be 10-to-1; that is, each ounce of gold would exchange for 10-ounces of silver. Yet the commodity markets have at this time (Nov. 2011) continually traded these metals in a range that is approximately 1-ounce of gold for 50-ounces of silver. In the past 20 years it has been as high as 1-ounce of gold for 100-ounces of silver; and as low as 1-to-30.
It is important for people purchasing gold and silver to question why this market is so skewed. First off, gold and silver are not used as money in the U.S. economy; nor does our government purchase or sell any significant amount of these metals annually, except in the production of non-monetary bullion coins. Consider that more than 50% of all gold mined annually is stored in bars or stamped into investment coins by several countries; while another large portion goes into jewelry and is relatively easily recoverable back to bullion. The world has accumulated more than 4.3 billion ounces of gold and the stock pile is growing around 75-million ounces per year. Silver is a very different story; for the past generation, more silver is consumed annually by industry than is mined.
Even though mining has increased the annual production of silver more than 50% in thirty years, worldwide industrial demand has increased even more; such that the above ground stocks of silver in the 1970's was around 24 billion ounces and has declined to between 18 and 19 billion ounces today; a large portion of which is not easily recoverable to bullion. Even if all the silver tied up in film, electronics, plumbing, military hardware, silverware, medical bandages, industrial catalysts, jewelry, anti-microbial clothes, etc., was available to serve as doomsday money there is still less than 5-ounces of silver available to each ounce of gold to serve as money. So 5-to-1 in quantity supports and affirms the current 50-to-1 price difference, right?
Actually, there is a lot of missing information about gold and silver. Because the market is always right, the 50-to-1 ratio has to be correct at this time, in this economy; the law of supply and demand can be manipulated, but it cannot be broken. Gold production is constrained such that a great deal of the above ground gold is mined and stored in a cave to cave sequestration by governments, banks, precious metal investment companies, and ETFs; all hoarding a lot of gold and some silver. In essence little new gold, relative to hoarded stockpiles, is available to be owned by individuals as bullion, while essentially all silver, both mine production and stockpiles is for sale to the highest bidder for industrial consumption. Gold is artificially high in price relative to its quantity above ground because of hoarding; which is done to promote a high price and facilitate price control. The markets in gold and silver are not free markets; supply and price are manipulated to benefit governments, banks, and industries. A great deal of newly mined silver is sold by miners at very low prices to benefit industry, presumably to gain help from the financial markets in having the gold market managed in such a way that prices are kept very high to benefit miners; and to give a false wealth effect to governments and banks that sequester gold. Considering that most of these large mining companies are publicly owned; the dumping of silver at prices as low as 10% of the spot price seems to disparage their stockholders unless there is a price benefit to their gold production side of the precious metal market.
The cave-to-cave aspect of gold comes from the vast system of caves made by miners to remove gold ore; refine a fraction of that ore into gold bars; which are to a large extent bought by governments, banks, and ETFs and immediately put back into concrete caves with thick steel doors, to keep it locked away as a hoard, and not likely to ever be used as money by citizens to purchase consumables. So if the 50-to-1 price ratio reflects the available amount of silver to gold, and if there are 18-billion ounces of silver that could be made available for exchange and consumption by markets, then there are only 360-million ounces of gold available for exchange and consumption by the markets. At least that is the quantity relationship supported by the lack of information to the users, holders, and investors of gold and silver. But this quantity relationship is false, since banks and governments have sequestered a little over 2-billion ounces of gold (about half of the mined gold), leaving 2-billion ounces or so to be held by individuals, businesses, and ETFs; and since several billion ounces of silver are sequestered in film, electronics, etc.; the amount of silver available to individuals as bullion is about 4-billion ounces; giving us a ratio of tradable bullion of 2-ounces of silver to 1-ounce of gold in the possession of private citizens, (this includes jewelry and bullion that could act as money). If silver is correctly priced at about $35.00 per ounce then gold should only command a price of two times greater or $70.00 per ounce; based simply on a supply foundation for price. Since the current price ratio is 50-to-1 this should lead us to suspect that the market is skewed by ignorance, misinformation, and probably disinformation through market management; which has created a speculative market in gold, in place of an investment market, which can only correct itself downward as individuals become more knowledgeable about the bullion supply and the more effective monetary use of silver versus gold.
There are some aspects of investing in gold that make it undesirable to own, should there be an economic meltdown. The first is that governments have the power to force those who possess gold to sell it to government at a price set by government. This was done in the U.S. by President Roosevelt in 1933, when private ownership of most gold became illegal; until President Nixon overturned this law in 1971. The price paid to those turning over their gold was $20.67 per ounce; while the following year, in 1934, President Roosevelt devalued the dollar 41% by declaring that the U.S. would exchange gold internationally at $35.00 per ounce. Why would anyone want to own gold when government can confiscate it and cheat the owner while doing so? Granted silver could also be confiscated by government, but because it is highly effective as domestic money and has many industrial uses, government would cause economic harm to itself by interfering in the use of silver as money in our economy.
An even worse problem for those who speculate in gold ETFs, ETCs, or purchase gold that is stored and managed by investment companies, is that they will never gain possession of the gold they have invested in; and therefore will not have any of the economic protection they were seeking when they bought into these investment scams. A full meltdown of the world economies could occur in a matter of days or at most a few weeks; and along with such a meltdown all forms of secure distribution of goods will fail; making it impossible to ship items such as gold and silver from any form of investment depository to individuals and businesses. Not to mention that in an economic meltdown all depositories of precious metals (which include all forms of precious metals investment companies) will be raided; and their gold and silver will be confiscated by governments in the political interests of those in power at the time.
There is a relatively new way to speculate in commodities like gold and silver called Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). A precious metal ETF is run be a trustee organization that buys and sells a commodity like gold and also sells paper certificates that act like stock in that ETF. The trustee hires a bank to be the custodian of its gold; to store it and to receive additional gold when the trustee buys, or deliver gold to a buyer when the trustee sells. You as an investor (actually you are a speculator in paper, not an investor in gold) can trade your paper ETF stock with other speculators, who as a group must pay all of the overhead and profit of the trustee organization, such as wages, rent, shipping, storage, insurance and brokers fees. It is impossible to find a chair in this game when the music stops, because the custodian banker is the only one with a chair and he is not playing the game; the banker already has the gold; you hope!
I recently had a good laugh at the expense of a popular television business program when one of their reporters was doing a series on gold, wherein he was in London and was allowed to view gold that he reported was owned by a very large Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). He viewed this gold only after surrendering all electronic devices that could pinpoint his location and after being driven around London in a blacked-out van to ensure he had no idea of his location. For some reason he felt privileged to take part is this charade, without his understanding that an ETF is an investing charade by design. If you do not know where your investment is, or its condition without an audit for quantity and quality, it might as well still be disbursed in the crust of the earth.
What proof can this reporter provide that the gold he saw belonged to that ETF? How often is that gold randomly assayed to prove that it is gold? What assurance can the ETF provide that any gold they possess will not be confiscated by the British government, or any government of any country that allows ETFs to store precious metals in their banks? What prevents the custodian of gold or silver from selling the metals to cover short positions or raise cash by selling metals to profit from price spikes, when they, as banks, speculate in the precious metal markets, without informing the trustee of the ETF?
If ETF funds are good investments, with their hidden gold and only ownership of paper stocks in the ETF, why not create an ETF on gold that is hidden in the earth and cannot be mined. It is estimated that we have mined roughly 5% of the gold in the earth and that future mining will extract a further 5%, leaving 90% of the gold in the earth to form the basis for our ETF. All sales and purchases of our stock will be through our broker at current spot prices. Since 5% represents over 4-billion ounces of gold, our earth ETF would be roughly 90-billion ounces of gold; and we know exactly where all of it is; we also know that it is secure and cannot be stolen or confiscated by government. If our fund needs to sell gold we can sell ownership of gold in cubic kilometers of the earth's crust and buy those ownership rights back, when our fund has better cash flow from higher gold prices that will bring in more investors. We will sell stock in our ETF for a premium (broker's fee) over and above our gold's value and live off that premium while speculators try to out speculate each other trading our ETF stock through our broker. Since cows need to be milked and investors need to be bilked; not only can we form one ETF in this manner, we can form hundreds using the same gold; the gold is irrelevant, because ETFs are all about paper. Outside of ETFs concentrating commodities that make it easier for governments to confiscate those commodities, there is nothing special about them; they are just a newer game in the gambling casino known as Wall Street; and in every ETF you are speculating in paper and only paper.
Then there are companies that will sell you gold and silver and offer to store it and insure you against its being lost or stolen for an annual storage fee and insurance fee. So when the economy goes into inflationary meltdown and you want to take possession, you will first need to have some sort of distribution network that is still operating and is trustworthy to bring your gold to you; then you will need to be sure that the company storing your gold has not repeatedly sold and resold your gold and stored it for many other investors that may also want delivery of "their gold", causing that company to simply send everyone a cash refund, if that. If you do not have it in your land you cannot sell it or spend it to support life and limb.
Consider the possible scenario occurring about mid-September 2013, the limited wheat and corn harvest is coming in, controlled by government after social declension brought on by political corruption and greed, and the self-fulfilling prophecies of December 21, 2012, cause an economic meltdown in the winter of 2012-2013. Anyway, by September 2013 there are long lines in the cities to purchase the meager amount of goods available. Government is by Marshal Law and standing in bread lines is the priority activity for most people. On one side of the street there is a very long line of people waiting to receive two slices of bread every other day from a government storehouse, provided they have the proper government identification; while on the other side of that street a line forms outside a bakery that is allowed to bake and sell their own surplus bread over and above what they bake for the government dole. The bakery sells on a black market that the government tolerates to avoid social unrest, but which the banks will be jealous about, because it shuts them out of these transactions.
The bakery sets a limit of two loaves per person per week at a profiteering price of one ounce silver per loaf; and a sign that says we do not make change; of course the baker will barter for other items of value, but he will not accept Federal Reserve Notes, because their value will be declining daily and they cannot be trusted to replenish the baker's flour, sugar, and shortening. In the line outside the bakery are a number of people with questionable assets that they hope they can trade for bread. Obviously the person with two 1-ounce silver pieces will get two loaves of bread and the person with six half-dollar coins (minted pre-1965) containing 2.16-ounces of silver will get two loaves of bread. What about the person that presents the baker a 1-ounce American gold eagle coin; what will they get? They will receive two loaves of bread for their 1-ounce of gold, provided that gold is exchanging for two or more ounces of silver; and they will receive no change. While the person with the nice ETF certificates, showing a picture of gold on each certificate, will presumably be able to exchange them for a piece of paper with a picture of a loaf of bread on it. Similarly for the person that owns gold stored by an investment company; the baker informs them that when they have gold or silver in their possession he will do business with them.
How will gold and silver compare in an economic meltdown? Well if gold is not confiscated by governments worldwide; and hoarded gold is not sold to businesses and individuals by governments and big banks, there would be about 1-billion ounces of gold in tradable bullion coins and bars and about 1-billion ounces of gold in the form of jewelry, that to some extent would serve as money if the gold content of any piece of jewelry can be estimated. Similarly for silver, there are about 4-billion ounces of silver in the form of coins and bullion worldwide and perhaps a billion ounces of sterling silver in the form of jewelry and silverware that could serve as tradable money. Leaving us a ratio of 2-ounces of gold to 5-ounces of silver, held by individuals, to serve as stable money worldwide.
These figures are actually declining right now in Europe and the U.S., because several companies are canvassing owners of gold and silver coins, bullion, and jewelry to sell it for cash; and as this recession continues, more and more gold and silver is disappearing into increasing industrial consumption and large depositories such as governments, banks, and ETF funds. Here in Eugene Oregon we have had more than 100 full page ads in the local newspaper in the past year, offering to purchase gold and silver in any form; not to mention the almost continuous television ads that have occurred over several months in the past year, soliciting viewers to sell unwanted gold jewelry for cash. This is causing a significant decline in the amount of gold and silver still available to individuals to be used as money in future economic duress; while this recycled gold is mostly sequestered to maintain the high price of gold, this recycled silver is sold mostly to industry, and resulting in depressed silver prices until it is consumed.
It is important to note that the ratio of gold to silver that is held by individuals is somewhere between 1-to 1 and 1-to-2.5 ounces of gold to ounces of silver. So the barter value (money value) of these metals in a failed economy will be parity or near parity; making an investment in gold for the purpose of personal economic preservation a very unwise act. It is silly to stockpile a shelter with champagne, caviar, and frozen pastries, against a threat of war or natural disaster, when apple juice, peanut butter, and crackers will sustain you just as well, for a fraction of the cost. It is therefore silly to buy gold to insure your economic future when purchasing silver would give you between 20 and 50 times the value at today's prices (gold around $1750 and silver around $35 per ounce each). Even for people playing the metals markets as investors or speculators, without concern or consideration of using gold as future money, the price of gold relative to silver will continue to change in favor of silver and the cost of investing in gold will require more capital for less profit relative to silver as time goes on.
So when is it a good time to buy silver or even gold if you are still so inclined? Anytime between now and a global depression, when you will presumably spend it to maintain a supply of food clothes, shelter, purchase raw and finished commodities, pay wages, make loans, etc. Individuals, small and large businesses, small and large banks should all have a stock of silver bullion from which they can profit from while stabilizing their local economy with liquid barter money. It does not matter what you pay to purchase silver; today's market value of silver cannot be associated with the value it will have in a global depression. If market conditions cause silver to drop in price to $10.00 per ounce it's a good deal, or if conditions cause it to rise to $100,00 per ounce its still a good deal; obviously a lower price allows you to acquire more, which for individuals should be at least 350 ounces (1-oz per day for expenses for one year); a two year supply would be more prudent, because it gets you through two growing seasons where food production and preservation should be recovering from the depression's initial shock to all forms of production.
The so-called free market concept of buying and selling any stock, bond, commodity or consumable is a fallacy. Open competition in energy and industrial commodities is a myth. Demand does not control supply; rather supply is managed to provide maximum profit no matter how great or small demand may be at any given time. If consumers reduce their demand for gasoline by 10%, the supply of crude oil and refined gasoline are reduced 10%. The oil companies just reduce the amount of oil they pump out of the ground and they reduce the amount of oil that is refined into gasoline, to keep prices as high as the market will bear. Oil is a totally managed market devoid of competition. Commodities like corn, soybeans, sugar, etc., are also controlled in production to provide maximum profits to those who process and distribute products made from these commodities; by controlling the amount of acreage to be used to grow any specific crop. Government programs to keep farm land idle and unproductive, are ongoing to limit supply to consumers so that producers can maximize profits in a managed market.
Gold and silver are similarly managed, but for different reasons. Outside of decorative accessories to our persons and a limited demand for industrial uses, gold is a totally useless metal, which is why most of it sits in vaults and safe-deposit boxes (caves). It serves no economic purpose outside personal decoration; it is no longer money. Gold is to a large extent hoarded, and has always been hoarded by governments and the controllers of economic activity.
Anything that is hoarded serves no purpose but to increase the wealth of the hoarder in a controlled managed market where supply to markets is limited by those hoarding gold to maximize the price a consumer is willing to pay. Oil companies hoard oil and gas in the earth, government and banks hoard gold in vaults, and they all profit from the management of their hoard, with respect to consumption. The latest gimmick to hoard commodities is ETFs. Gold mining companies can for example supply gold to an ETF in relatively large quantities, at a price beneficial to both, and let the ETF sell stock to speculators and use that income to purchase and hoard the miners' gold bit by bit over time. That gold is managed in supply to the market and hoarded in a location where it may easily be confiscated when economic conditions both permit and require that it be removed from the supply and demand activity of consumers or speculators and only be used to benefit the controllers of governments and economic activity (banks).
Because of the continuous relationship of cost of all goods and services in terms of dollars, year in and year out, consumers are mesmerized into thinking that the dollar is stable in its purchasing power; when in fact the dollar's instability continues to erode everyone's wealth, except those who create and loan dollars at interest rates that are higher than the rate of inflation. Consider that the current Federal Reserve Note has lost at least 98% of its purchasing power in the 98-year history of the Federal Reserve Private Banking Corporation; which seems like a sad tale when you consider that the primary responsibility written into the law that created this privately owned corporation was to maintain a stable value for the dollar and maintain full employment for all of our citizens who want to work. The dollar is not stable, has never been stable, and never will be stable, because there is more profit for banks with mild continuous inflation; while the Federal Reserve Private Banking Corporation now admits it cannot create jobs or economic conditions that increase jobs; the Federal Reserve can only protect, preserve, and enrich the banks that own the Fed. I always get a laugh out of the business channels on TV that report the rising prices of gold and silver as nearing or reaching record prices, given in U.S. dollars. They cannot seem to understand that gold would have to go above $2400.00 per ounce today to have the same purchasing power that it had in 1980 when it reached more than $800.00 per ounce; and silver would have to rise above $150.00 per ounce today to have the purchasing power that it had in 1980 when it reached over $50.00 per ounce. Gold at $1750.00 per ounce today is still about 25% below its record price; and silver at $35.00 per ounce is more than 70% below its record price. The dollar is not stable and continually rising prices of everything, year in and year out, prove it.
Silver is a great example of commodity management to protect the profitability of big banks. Unlike gold, silver is both an industrial commodity and a consumer money. Although it has not been used as money per se since 1980, when many retail businesses were accepting silver as payment in place of paper dollars during the last big run up in gold and silver amidst the 1970's high inflation; silver will rear its head as money in inflationary times; provided there is a large enough supply to assist bartering and displace fiat dollars. The big banks are very much concerned about the competition of silver as money and are actively supporting the removal of as much as they can from the possession of ordinary citizens. In times of accelerating inflation, economic activity can only be controlled by banks if everyone must use their instantly created fiat dollars at their profiteering rates of interest. Obviously banks make profits off debt; much of that debt is long term at relatively fixed interest rates. This represents fixed income for banks, which would be eroded by inflation if they cannot be rolled over into new loans at higher interest rates. While accelerating inflation causes many businesses and retailers to look to direct barter or stable replacement money for the fiat paper money that may be declining in purchasing power. Outside of direct barter, goods for goods, silver is the only competition for Federal Reserve Notes to fulfill the role of money.
So control and removal of silver from the pockets of consumers is essential to controlling economic activity during the upcoming run away inflation. The banks must force everyone to use their fiat money at their interest rates to maintain control of all economic activity from which they can profit. Hence all of this activity in the past year advertising for people to sell their gold and silver to refiners where it can be concentrated into bullion and stored by banks in ETFs, or sold into industrial consumption. Every time there is a run up in the price of gold and silver there is a coincident increase by refiners to purchase these metals, then the price falls, while the latest roundup of precious metals is consumed by ETFs, governments, and industry; then another round of price pumping removes more gold and silver from personal possession, until there will be insufficient gold and especially silver to compete with Federal Reserve Notes as money in a failed and hyper-inflating economy. But without silver to act as a relatively stable currency during a depression involving hyper-inflation of Federal Reserve Notes, economic revitalization will be nearly impossible, because continually devaluing fiat dollars will not be trusted or exchanged for any significant transactions and direct barter is too slow a process to significantly and quickly improve any economy.
Oh well, the music will soon stop; and though the banker appears to have the only chair, that chair has no legs, so the game must start over from scratch; i.e., candles, hand tools, hard money, physical labor.
Craig D. Hanks
November 2011
http://www.amazon.com/Social-Benchmarks-Craig-Hanks/dp/1440490031/ref=sr_1_34?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1231176281&sr=1-34
Saturday, January 7, 2012
Tips on Buying a Buffalo Gold Coin
One quite recent investment opportunity when it comes to gold is the American Buffalo gold coins. Similar to the gold dollar coin a US insignia will be present on the Buffalo gold coins. There should be governmental guarantees about the quality and amount of gold that is contained in every coin. This is to guarantee the worth of the Buffalo gold bullion will not be questioned in world markets. It is pretty easy to buy Buffalo gold if you are willing to do a little research to find a dealer.
The Buffalo gold coin is pure 24k gold, much more pure than many other coins, such as the 22k American Eagle gold coin, which contains approximately 8% metal other than gold. This is the case 99 out of 100 times. You are sure to get gold with 99 percent of coins. The cost of the coin is started by taking the price of gold and the coin making process into consideration. These are the things that make the buffalo coin a popular investment when choosing gold.
This is the way to locate gold bullion dealers.
The US Mint will help you to find someone nearby. You will only need to pick the state. Their website will also give estimated prices for gold coins, based on the current trading price of gold.
Use a search engine such as Yahoo or Google and search for "Buffalo gold coin." You will be able to find many good results, like Blanchard and Northwest Territorial. It is important to check prices for different dealers of Buffalo gold as there can be a wide variation in pricing.
You can locate a dealer by looking in your phone book under the "gold" or "coins" section.
The U.S. Mint has made 300,000 of the Buffalo gold coin proof version. It seems like a huge number, however, some number more than 244,000 of the Buffalo gold bullion coins have been sold to some lucky buyers.
The US Mint will sell these to you. You can either contact the United States Mint at 1-800-USA-MINT or visit their website. They will be something that can be purchased separately.
One other choice to look at online auctions such as eBay to possibly locate one that is less expensive that the current price at the U.S. Mint site, but make sure the dealer is reputable, so you won't buy a Buffalo gold proof coin for more than you should.
Be sure to do your comparison shopping before you invest in gold, regardless of the form that it's in you definitely want to get your money's worth. Investing in silver bullion is highly similar to investing in gold bullion so the same principles will apply. You are going to find just as many people trying to rip you off by overcharging on the gold that they are selling as those who will not pay you enough for your scrap gold.
{The complication with becoming a collector of anything is finding someone to tell you how much what your collecting is worth.} {It is fun to find out how the bovine behemoth goes against coins from other countries.}
Renata Lavlor writes about Collecting and other Hobbies as a staff writer for HowToDoThings.com.
The Buffalo gold coin is pure 24k gold, much more pure than many other coins, such as the 22k American Eagle gold coin, which contains approximately 8% metal other than gold. This is the case 99 out of 100 times. You are sure to get gold with 99 percent of coins. The cost of the coin is started by taking the price of gold and the coin making process into consideration. These are the things that make the buffalo coin a popular investment when choosing gold.
This is the way to locate gold bullion dealers.
The US Mint will help you to find someone nearby. You will only need to pick the state. Their website will also give estimated prices for gold coins, based on the current trading price of gold.
Use a search engine such as Yahoo or Google and search for "Buffalo gold coin." You will be able to find many good results, like Blanchard and Northwest Territorial. It is important to check prices for different dealers of Buffalo gold as there can be a wide variation in pricing.
You can locate a dealer by looking in your phone book under the "gold" or "coins" section.
The U.S. Mint has made 300,000 of the Buffalo gold coin proof version. It seems like a huge number, however, some number more than 244,000 of the Buffalo gold bullion coins have been sold to some lucky buyers.
The US Mint will sell these to you. You can either contact the United States Mint at 1-800-USA-MINT or visit their website. They will be something that can be purchased separately.
One other choice to look at online auctions such as eBay to possibly locate one that is less expensive that the current price at the U.S. Mint site, but make sure the dealer is reputable, so you won't buy a Buffalo gold proof coin for more than you should.
Be sure to do your comparison shopping before you invest in gold, regardless of the form that it's in you definitely want to get your money's worth. Investing in silver bullion is highly similar to investing in gold bullion so the same principles will apply. You are going to find just as many people trying to rip you off by overcharging on the gold that they are selling as those who will not pay you enough for your scrap gold.
{The complication with becoming a collector of anything is finding someone to tell you how much what your collecting is worth.} {It is fun to find out how the bovine behemoth goes against coins from other countries.}
Renata Lavlor writes about Collecting and other Hobbies as a staff writer for HowToDoThings.com.
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